Simplifying the Chaos
A Probabilistic Framework for Navigating War, Markets, and BTC
Welcome 👋🏽
I’m going to keep it short and sweet this week (for once).
I was almost done writing the newsletter when we got this banger from POTUS.
If it looks like an off-ramp and smells like an off-ramp, it’s probably an off-ramp for both the US and Iran.
That said, much of what I have written about is still relevant because…well, we just don’t know with POTUS.
I mean, some ‘semi-official’ Iranian media (according to Bloomberg) is already claiming that they never held talks with the Adminstration - let’s wait and see.
So, let’s simplify our decision-making
Firstly, I think we can all agree that this geopolitical climate is adversely impacting our bags.
Secondly, over the past few weeks, I’ve consistently highlighted the importance of de-risking assets sitting at or near all-time highs, and I expanded on this when our Risk-On Risk-Off (RORO) tool flipped to Risk-Off 🔴
Since then:
Gold is down 21%, back to levels last seen in December 2025
The S&P 500 is down 6%
My stance hasn’t changed.
De-risk assets at or near all-time highs.
Hold assets that have already experienced a meaningful drawdown
including those we accumulated on 5 February when the Capital Deployment Framework last triggered
This view is based on the expectation that the War ends in the short-to-medium term. I’ve covered the full reasoning in prior newsletters, but it is worth reinforcing one key point:
As investors, we should not be allocating based on today’s headlines. We should be positioning based on what the world is likely to look like 6 to 18 months from now.
From that lens, the problem becomes much simpler. There are three scenarios on the table. Effectively, we have a multiple-choice question that we can assign probabilities to and position accordingly.
Here are the three scenarios as I see them 👇🏽
Based on these scenarios, here is how I expect BTC to behave, and how I plan to position 👇🏽