The tools that Make 'The Hustle' Great...again
Selling the Top Indicators & RORO Tool
Welcome 👋
Given the hundreds of new subscribers in the last month, I’ve decided to showcase the two tools that ‘Make the Hustle Great’…again.
and that I personally rely on to navigate the crypto market and global economy. These tools don’t just guide my decisions - they’re central to my success in:
Consistently beating the S&P 500, NASDAQ, BTC, and ETH
Achieving over 40% annualised returns in my public investment portfolio
Growing the portfolios of 450+ copiers, with a combined $2M in assets under copy.
Now that you know I walk the talk, let’s dive into these two tools.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER ⚠️
The content provided by PROJECT 10X PTY LTD (Filip Brnadic) is for educational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. PROJECT 10X PTY LTD is not a licensed financial adviser under Australian law.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of all funds. Seek independent advice before making any financial decisions.
Navigate to
➡️ ‘Selling the top of the crypto bull run’ indicators:
➡️ ‘Risk On Risk Off’ (RORO tool):
Selling the Top of the Crypto Bull Run 🐂
Summary:
This tool tracks indicators that have consistently called the tops of crypto bull markets. Any indicator that fails to do so gets removed from the list."
These are the same indicators I used to sell near the top of the 2021 bull run.
It is a quantitative strategy to offload crypto holdings based on sentiment, technical analysis and on-chain data rather than emotion and narrative.
Here’s what the tool looks like 👇
To make it easy to follow, I’ve divided the indicators into tiers based on their influence:
Jedi: The most powerful, reliable indicators
Normie: Strong, data-driven indicators
Pleb: Helpful for reading market sentiment
There are 29 indicators that I use to help me sell near the top.
They are categorised as follows 👇
Sentiment Indicators
measure the market mood or emotional state (e.g., greed vs. fear).
use surveys, social media analysis, and news trends.
Technical Indicators
Analyse price patterns and trends using historical data.
Use chart patterns, moving averages, Fibonacci extensions etc.
Aim to predict future price movements based on past behaviour.
On-Chain Indicators
Use blockchain data to assess network activity and demand.
Track metrics like active addresses, transaction volume, and miner behaviour.
Help gauge network health and user engagement.
I use a traffic light system to make it easy to gauge the current status of each indicator:
🟢 All good: Markets are steady
🟡 Caution: Early signs of bull market euphoria
🔴 Alert: We’ve hit this indicator!
I’ve added price targets to those indicators, which try to predict the cycle top.
You’ll know it’s time to risk off (sell) when enough of these indicators, especially the Jedi tier, light up.
Here is the ‘state’ of the indicators during the 2017 and 2021 bull market tops.
Can you explain it like I am 5? What does this mean?
When enough indicators start showing 🟡 or 🔴, it’s time to consider selling. The most important signals come from the Jedi tier—the ones you don’t want to ignore.
I still don’t get it. What does a sell signal look like?
If the indicators start looking or signalling anything like the 2017 and 2021 ‘peak’ columns, as shown above, that’s your signal.
Premium subscribers get real-time alerts through Substack chat as I start selling near the peak of the bull run - both in my personal and public portfolios.
What then?
You sell your crypto holdings, that’s what!
But I haven’t made enough money yet. What do I do?
You preserve the capital you do have because you’re about to have a whole lot less, my friend.
How much time will I have to sell?
In the second half of 2021, there were:
➡️ 16 days where #BTC closed above $62K (<10% from ATH)
➡️ 3 days where $BTC closed above $65.5K (<5% from ATH)
You have less than a month to sell at a great price, so you better have a plan.
RORO Tool 🔮
Summary:
Designed to take the guesswork out of portfolio allocation; and
provide us with directionality on a multi-month timeframe; and
is used to let us know whether we should be risk-on or risk-off.
I created the Risk-on-Risk-off (RORO) tool to remove the guesswork from portfolio allocation. Based on market conditions, this tool guides us on whether to lean into risk or dial back and by how much.
Here’s what the tool looks like 👇
It is built to give me an early indication that we may see favourable or unfavourable price action over a multi-month timeframe.
Here’s an example: Imagine it’s March 2024, and I have $100K in crypto. If the RORO tool signals a rough few months ahead with potential for a big downturn, it would be time to consider reducing my exposure.
In this scenario, the tool signalled “risk-off mode” mid-March and before the -40% drawdown in crypto total market cap that followed.
This way we can avoid 6, 7, or even 8-figure drawdowns and not have to resort to SpongeBob style punishment 👇🏼
Sure, anyone can build a RORO tool. But what sets this one apart—and gives us the confidence to act on its signals—is the rigorous back-testing we do to confirm that our macro and crypto indicators are both profitable and reliable.
For example, here I show that the “BTC ETF Inflows” which is one of the crypto indicators of the RORO tool, has a high win rate and is almost twice as profitable as HODL’ing BTC 👇
Here is how I use the tool 👇
🔴 Max risk-off: I’m sitting in cash or cash equivalents.
🟡 Risk-off: I’ve allocated some capital, but not to risk-on assets like tech or crypto.
🟡 Risk-on: I have capital allocated to risk-on assets.
🟢 Max risk-on: I’m fully allocated to risk-on assets.
How can you use it effectively?
Start by defining your strategy according to your risk tolerance.
“In a max risk-off environment I will be holding…”
“In a risk-off environment I…”
“In a risk-on environment I…”
“In a max risk-on environment I will be holding…”
My strategy looks like this:
Max risk-off: Holding zero crypto or tech stocks
Risk-off: Holding ≤ 20% in crypto/tech and ≥ 80% in cash
Risk-on: Holding ≤ 70% in crypto/tech and ≥ 30% in cash
Max risk-on: Fully invested in crypto/tech."
Now that we’ve defined our risk appetite, we can allocate using quantitative back-tested data rather than our feelings so that one day we can let our lambos do the talking.
Premium subscribers get real-time alerts through Substack chat as soon as the RORO tool changes signal.
Can we get this tool to use in ourselves? Where can we monitor it? I'd like to set up alerts so that I get notified when a certain number of metrics turn red. Can we do this?