The Violent Part Is Likely Done
Why fast drawdowns do the job of long bears
Welcome 👋🏽
Every cycle, the same questions resurface:
Where are we in the bear market?
Is this a bounce or the cycle bottom?
Should I be allocating now, or waiting?
In mid-February, I floated a simple idea:
If crypto continues to follow the traditional four-year cycle structure, we may bottom in Q3 instead of Q4 as participants attempt to front-run the cycle low.
Not groundbreaking. But structurally important.
Because if bottoms are being pulled forward each cycle, that changes how we deploy capital.
Front-Running the Cycle Bottom
BTB #4 - Semaphore illustrates the structural shift clearly.
Across the last three cycles:
First cycle: bottom in Q1 of the sideways year
Second cycle: bottom in Q4 of the down year, one quarter earlier
Third cycle: bottom in Q2 of the down year, followed by the FTX contagion sweep
Each cycle low arrived earlier than the previous one.
Now, I know at least one person reading this is thinking to themselves that there are only three cycle data points - hardly a statistically significant sample size.
That is not lost on me, but ultimately, markets are reflexive systems. Participants learn….capital adapts….we work with what we’ve got….
Front-running becomes self-reinforcing.
This is also why BTC finished down in an up-year after printing new all-time highs in early October 2025. Profit-taking itself was front-run.
If we apply that logic forward, and assume no existential macro shock, my base case becomes:
Cycle lows occur in Q1 or Q2 of the down year (2026).
I’ve already laid out why I believe this recent flush is at least a local bottom and a great HTF entry.