Hi All,
Today, I held a war room meeting with the community after posting about it in the community chat. I outlined my macro outlook and short-term strategy if my circuit breaker gets triggered.
A circuit breaker is the level at which I would sell all my assets on a bounce.
One thing that caught my attention was a member who asked something along the lines of
“what happens if the RORO tool says stay risk-on, but the circuit breaker gets triggered”.
I haven’t stopped thinking about this question all evening. Even while presenting at Blockchain Sydney tonight, all I wanted to do was go back to my hotel room and backtest the data!
The reason is that I haven’t seen this scenario unfold since I started tracking the RORO tool in October 2021. Having said that, it’s late in the evening now (12AM), and I’ve been up for 21 hours, so I plan to review what the RORO tool was doing around the local high in April 2021 first thing in the morning, given this was a clear market structure break in BTC.
This will then help build my confidence as to what degree I de-risk in that scenario. 👇🏼
In any case, stay tuned for tomorrow’s newsletter. In the meantime, the summary from our War Room Meeting is below.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER ⚠️
The content provided by PROJECT 10X PTY LTD (Filip Brnadic) is for educational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. PROJECT 10X PTY LTD is not a licensed financial adviser under Australian law.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of all funds. Seek independent advice before making any financial decisions.
Macro Picture & Market Outlook
Risk-On Environment:
The RORO tool indicates a broadly risk-on environment despite short-term volatility.
Key macro indicators:
Global liquidity is increasing – a key driver of risk assets.
ISM manufacturing index is just above 50, indicating economic expansion but not overheating - which is what we want to see in a bull market.
USD is weakening, which is supportive of crypto markets.
Geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East conflicts) remain but aren’t at a tipping point for markets.
BTC ETF inflows flipped negative, contributing to recent market sentiment shifts.
Market Sentiment & Narratives:
There is a strong "anti-normie" indicator at play – mainstream traders are selling, but that’s typically a buy signal.
Solana’s current weak narrative (concerns over meme coins) contrasts with XRP’s strong institutional narrative.
Historically, market structure breaks on BTC indicate broader downturns, making BTC the primary signal for larger trend shifts.
Bear Market Probability & Historical Context:
risk-on equities such as the NASDAQ are still in a bullish market structure, with higher highs and higher lows.
Compared to previous cycle tops, where:
Liquidity was contracting,
ISM was overheating (~58-59),
USD was surging,
We are in the opposite environment now.
Inflation concerns are valid but expected to pick up only in late 2025 or early 2026 rather than immediately.
Circuit Breaker Strategy
The Circuit Breaker Threshold:
BTC circuit breaker is set at ~$89K.
A daily close below this level signals a confirmed lower low, which would trigger selling of all holdings pending results from the RORO tool in 2021.
This ensures avoiding deeper drawdowns if the market shifts bearish.
Rationale for Circuit Breaker:
The BTC market structure determines altcoin direction.
If BTC breaks structure, altcoins will likely fall further.
This prevents holding through an extended decline, preserving capital for redeployment at lower levels.
BTC market structure breaks have historically led to significant market downturns, making this an essential signal.
Re-Entry & Redeployment Strategy:
After a circuit breaker breach, re-entry is only considered once BTC confirms a higher high and higher low.
Targeted buy zones for re-entry are determined using:
Fibonacci retracements
Market structure confirmation
Key levels
The focus remains on SOL, ETH, SUI, and BTC, with allocation decisions influenced by macro conditions.
Key Takeaways
Macro outlook remains risk-on for now, with no structural reasons to turn fully bearish.
BTC’s circuit breaker at $89K is the key level—a confirmed break and close below this triggers full exit pending results from the RORO tool in April 2021.
No new buys until bear market lows, where maximum upside and minimum downside align.
Profit-taking is crucial, as large drawdowns are inevitable even in bull markets.
Reallocation post-breaker would target my existing holdings, but only after trend confirmation.
This strategy ensures maximum capital efficiency, allowing participation in upside while avoiding prolonged bear market exposure.
That’s all for now.
Stay tuned for an update tomorrow!
✌🏼
Filip Brnadic
Thanks for the update 🙌🏻
looking forward to next update captain