Turning a $3800 portfolio into $1M in 30 years
Issue #10 - if your knickers are in a knot, maybe have a read.
Welcome👋🏽
What you may have missed in the last month💡
My newest addition to the ‘Selling the Top’ series indicators - Puell Multiple.
‘Selling the Top’ series - Free edition
When the market is doing your head in, zoom the fu** out
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It’ll help support the newest addition to our team - the PROJECT 10X intern!
His name is Haris, he is 20 years old, an absolute gun data analyst and he started this week! Between you and me…
What is all this about? 🤔
This newsletter series tracks me turning a $3800 investment into $1M in 30 years on my public investment portfolio. That way you know I’m not some larp who acts like they make bank, but really I be like..
I must outperform Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger in their prime to succeed.
So, this newsletter serves as
my macro review
a highlight of my portfolio changes
and a check-in on how we’re tracking towards our $1M goal.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER ⚠️
The content provided by PROJECT 10X PTY LTD (Filip Brnadic) is for educational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. PROJECT 10X PTY LTD is not a licensed financial adviser under Australian law.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of all funds. Seek independent advice before making any financial decisions.
Macro 📚
First, let’s start with a summary of the key economic data..
US Economy: The US Q3 GDP is estimated to be growing at an annual rate of 2.1%, which suggests that the economy is not recessionary.
Inflation Trends: Core PCE inflation has been moderating and is currently at 2.6% YoY, indicating a downward trend towards the FEDs 2% target. Truflation shows the US YoY inflation rate at 1.26% - the economy is not inflationary.
Labour Market: The labour market is weakening but is still at normal pre-pandemic rates. There is no need for concern and FUD as portrayed in Mainstream Media (MSM).
Federal Reserve Actions: Due to moderating inflation, a weakening labour market and strong economic growth, the FED policymakers have signalled rate cuts starting in September.
Global Rate Cutting Cycle: Rate cuts in the US will spur international rate cuts, with numerous developed economies having already started.
This rate cutting cycle will cause the USD (and therefore the DXY) to lose ground and we all know what that means for BTC 👇🏼
Then you tack on the favourable seasonality that is coming from October..
and sprinkle in global liquidity that is trending up and to the right at an accelerated pace…
and we have no reason to get our knickers in a knot. This is not Armageddon. What you're experiencing are your feelings towards being exposed to an 80-vol asset.
That is normal. Just remember, we have a bull run ahead of us.
Portfolio 📉
In June we reduced our exposure to SMH 0.00%↑ by 70% after price tagged the 2.618 long-term Fib extension. We closed the remaining positions in early August as the Yen Carry Trade unravelled.
We also made a few trades on $SOL and NKE 0.00%↑ given the level of volatility in markets this month - some of the trades worked out, some didn’t.
Overall, I try to keep the trading to a minimum on my eToro portfolio given it is a long-term actively managed investment portfolio. .
We also added to our TSLA 0.00%↑ position, which we opened a few months ago for the reasons outlined here. This has reduced our average entry price, and I still firmly believe that, given the macro backdrop, this will be one of the best large cap performers over the next 12 to 24 months.
Here is the overall portfolio performance:
The annualised return over the life of the portfolio is 40%.
The portfolio was down -18% in August.
We started August with $1.9M AUM and 455 copiers and ended the month with $1.7M AUM and 458 copiers.
To the new copiers, I say:
Seeing as you’re new here, I’ll let you in on a little secret👇🏽
Performance 📖
Background
I funded my eToro account with $3800 USD ($5000 AUD) on 1 January 2021.
I need a 19% annualised return to turn a $3800 portfolio into $1M in 30 years.
The portfolio will hit $1M by January 2051 if I achieve the required return.
So, what do the numbers tell us?
We're 3 years and 2 months ahead of schedule, outperforming a buy-and-hold BTC strategy over the same time frame.
What this means is that:
if you invested $100K into BTC on January 2021 (when I joined eToro), you would have $205K.
if you invested $100K and copied my trades on eToro, you would have $353K.
Extrapolating my annualised return, the portfolio should hit $1M by August 2035 or in ~11 years.
I’m not saying we’ll get there. My goal is $1M in 30 years, with a single investment of $3800.
If you’re thinking about copying my trades and you want your eToro portfolio to reach $1M at the same time, you would now have to copy with $13,412.
Or you could speed things up using a DCA strategy and make small monthly deposits.
If you decide to do it, follow the steps below to get yourself a free premium subscription to this newsletter 👇🏼
This is not financial advice.
I’m just laying out the data because numbers get me going!
That’s all for now.
Catch you next week.
✌🏽
Filip