From Failed Predictions to Gold Highs: Chronicles of a Champion PI
The markets just DONT STOP, and eToro copy block shenanigans
Welcome 👋
Today I cover:
How the market commentators were wrong ALL YEAR 🤦🏽♂️
The Gold bugs forgot to zoom out 😂
I got copy blocked on eToro 😠
But first, let’s kick things off with some headlines that make you wanna go
Headlines
The US labour market is stronger than expected, with unemployment falling from 3.9% to 3.7%.
is this “recession” in the room with us right now?
Bloomberg predicts Bitcoin will be above $500,000 in the next crypto cycle
I don’t know what they’re smoking, but it must be strong shi*
S&P 500 had one of the best November months in its history, up 8.9%
⚠️ DISCLAIMER ⚠️
The content provided by PROJECT 10X PTY LTD (Filip Brnadic) is for educational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. PROJECT 10X PTY LTD is not a licensed financial adviser under Australian law.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of all funds. Seek independent advice before making any financial decisions.
Coming Up
The upcoming newsletters are going to be a little more reflective than usual as this crazy year comes to an end.
Here’s what’s coming this month:
2023 is a wrap! What went right? What went wrong? What’s the go for 2024?
“If you thought this year was good, you ain’t seen nothing yet”
How much do you really need to retire?
“Let’s be honest for a minute. How much is enough? And are we being realistic?”
Exit Strategy: AMZN, COIN, META
“We’ve made bucket loads on these trades already. We’ll make bucket loads more”
The market commentators were wrong! 🤦🏽♂️
Markets have been on an absolute tear since I said that the Federal Reserve (the Fed) had given stocks the green light over a month ago.
Sprinkle on the fact that
the real inflation rate is at ~3%, within reaching distance of the Fed’s 2% mandate
We’ve got a better economic outlook than most people were forecasting. I mean, Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad is still doom-ranting…anything for the views, huh?
In fact, I’ve said it many times on here and eToro; if it smells like a ‘soft landing’ and looks like a ‘soft landing’, chances are, it’s a soft landing.
A soft landing is just the process of an economy shifting from growth to slow growth to potentially flat as it approaches but avoids a recession.
Remember, every man and their dog was talking about how there was going to be a huge recession, and that’s exactly what the markets priced in during 2022.
Exhibit A - Australian 200 (-16% decline in 2022)
Exhibit B - S&P500 (-28% decline in 2022)
Exhibit C - NASDAQ 100 (-38% decline in 2022)
Once we realised that Mr Market was irrational, as he tends to be from time to time, the market bounced back!
Warren Buffett once said that it's wise for investors
“to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”
It’s something I live by, and you should too. This year it paid off for me and my copiers, with a 139% return in 12 months. Thanks Buffet!
To put things in perspective, I believe we’re at stage #13 in the psychology of a market cycle (disbelief).
I expect a pullback in the first quarter of 2024, followed by a strong end to the year for all markets (equities and crypto).
The gold bugs forgot to zoom out 😂
Gold recently broke its ATH, hitting $2147. Levels not seen since August 2020, March 2022, and May 2023.
What I can’t understand for the life of me is why someone would buy and hold (not trade) Gold. I understand swing-trading it from $1660 to $2000, but to hold it? WHY?
Gold has traded sideways for the last 12 years. It was $1924 in September 2011. It is $2000 today.
If you had bought Gold in 2011-2012, you would have seen a measly return. Even if you had bought it at the 2015-2016 lows, you would have doubled your money in 7 years. We could have got more than that holding the S&P500 or NASDAQ.
I don’t know about you, but
➡️ All my money is put to work (except for 6 months of living expenses)
➡️ I have no amount of money that I would be comfortable with staying stagnant for 12 years.
Again, I understand the gold trade, but even then, no one is making “wife-changing” money trading Gold. (Alina, if you’re reading this, I’m kidding! 😆)
eToro Update 🐂
What a rollercoaster of a week it has been on eToro 🎢
➡️ Thanks to you, my copiers, I’ve smashed through the maximum Assets Under Copy (AUC) allowed for a Cadet Popular Investor (PI).
➡️ I then got upgraded to a Champion PI. During the upgrade, our portfolio was pumping, the copier count was increasing rapidly and thanks to one copier who deposited hundreds of thousands of dollars, we smashed through that level before it even became official!
➡️ I am eligible for Elite Popular Investor status in March 2024, in which case I will be eligible to manage up to $10M AUC.
➡️My Account Manager is working to fast-track my Elite PI status.
I’ll keep everyone who responded to my last post on eToro updated via DM and everyone else via Substack!
To qualify for Elite PI status, among other criteria, I need to have at least $25,000 US equity in my portfolio (my idea of growing this portfolio from $3800 to $1M without any additional capital goes out the window 😩). In any case, I will need to make a deposit shortly. You do not need to change anything.
I plan to
Make lump sum purchases of the assets I’m already holding so the proportion of each asset in the portfolio will not change.
When I do decide to make a trade, I will trade equal amounts so that no one is out of sync with my portfolio. For example, If I’ve got a 10% holding of BTC and I want to trim my position to 5%, I will sell 2.5% of the original BTC in the portfolio and 2.5% of the new position. That way everyone stays in sync.
At some point in late 2025, I will exit all positions and everyone will be in sync again (I’ll talk more on this in 2025).
I will never* have to add more to my portfolio so everyone will continue to be in sync… that is, unless my AUC exceeds $10M and eToro makes me deposit more equity!
Finally, I am going to stop posting regularly on eToro until they remove my copy-block, as I am getting inundated with messages from people asking why they cannot copy me. So if you want to stay updated, make sure you’re subscribed to my Substack newsletter!
I’ll leave you with my eToro portfolio statistics:
🆙 172% 2Y return
🆙 139% YTD return
⚠️ 5 risk score
🧠 169 Copiers
💵 $530,000 USD ($805,098 AUD) AUC
That’s all for now. Catch you next week.
✌️
Filip Brnadic