Crypto Intuition vs. Strategy: When to Break Your Own Rules
Real-time analysis, key decisions, and the psychology behind them.
Welcomeđđ˝
This week, I planned to deep-dive into the 2021 cycle, revisiting the indicators that signaled the March 2021 local top. Think of it as a sequel to my 2017 cycle breakdown. (If you havenât read that one yet, do yourself a favour and check it out here đđź).
But, as fate would have it, POTUS decided to launch a fu***** memecoin on a Friday night no less. And just like that, I kissed my weekend plans goodbye.
This was a significant event. Think about it. The President of the United States is shilling shi**ers.
Letâs pour one out for the TradFi folks who are sitting cosy on the sidelines with their Ben Graham book while 50 IQ crypto degens are making their annual salaries overnight.
I didnât participate because I made the most mid-curve play imaginable by assuming âit might be a scamâ - I mean weâre 20 days in and I faded the President. I think this might be a record for me.
My thought process at $1B market cap be like đđź
Thank fu** I was able to capitalise on the monumental SOL pump that accompanied it otherwise I wouldnât have been able to look myself in the mirror.
Said pump was so monumental that:
1ď¸âŁ I sold my next 20% batch of SOL in line with my take profit (TP) strategy I shared here and posted this in real time in our Substack chat đđź
2ď¸âŁ I threw my 20/20/60 strategy out of the window (temporarily) and offloaded another 20% of my SOL holdings (more on this shortly).
If you arenât active in our Substack community chat yet, youâre missing out. This isnât your typical degen Twitter cesspool of crypto bros writing âgoatedâ and âcodedâ BS. Here, youâll find sharp minds exchanging civilised takes: everyday investors whoâve weathered several cycles, neuroscientists, serial entrepreneurs, angel investors, ex-investment bankers, brokers, and property developers. - there is so much insight from the folks in the community chat, and thatâs just the ones Iâve worked on strategy sessions with.
Speaking of strategy, Iâm opening up 12 spots for February.
What exactly are crypto strategy sessions?
These sessions are designed to help us come up with a structured, actionable plan together to help you make the most of the bull marketđ
Is this right for me?
If you do not have a quantifiable plan and a strategy for every possible scenario this bull run, then this strategy session is for you.
If youâve made fu** all and have been around since the start of this bull run or worse, youâve been around for more than one bull run, then this strategy session is for you.
If you actually want to keep the money youâve made so far, then this strategy session is for you.
What do I need to do right now?
Read the above link to see âwhatâs includedâ.
Secure your spot for February 2025đ
â ď¸ DISCLAIMER â ď¸
The content provided by PROJECT 10X PTY LTD (Filip Brnadic) is for educational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. PROJECT 10X PTY LTD is not a licensed financial adviser under Australian law.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of all funds. Seek independent advice before making any financial decisions.
Circling back, letâs break down the two opportunities that I capitalised on.
TP2 for SOL @ $300: Locked and Loaded
Ah, yes - my second TP level for SOL hit just below $300, as outlined here đđź
Sure, thatâs great - but itâs not the interesting part. What I found interesting upon self-reflection was that my TP2 has consistently been âjust below $300.â Depending on when you caught me or my mood that day, you mightâve heard ~$280 or $288.
Why does this matter?
Because, investor psychology is everything.
Last week, I was chatting with a friend (Mattâthis oneâs for you, mate đ), and he hit me with the classic, âItâs easy to buy low and sell high.â Sure, Matt, when youâre playing with $30K, thatâs manageable. But scaling that mindset to 7 or 8 figures?
Whole. Different. Ballgame.
As your stack grows from $10K to $100K, then $1M, $10M, or even $100M, youâll realise how much louder that little voice in your head gets:
âFor every $1 extra I HODL, my portfolio grows exponentiallyâŚâ
âBut what if the SOL price hits $287, then crashes to $225?â
âWhat if everyone front-runs $300, and I miss my target completely?â
âWhat if the inauguration pumps it to $400 before correcting to $300?â
This is precisely why I stick to tools and strategies:
The 20/20/60 rule to predefine TPs (even if the exact level shifts).
The RORO tool to gauge whether weâre in a bullish or bearish regime.
The STT indicatators to identify overheated markets at the top of a bull run.
And yet, even with all that, this past weekend forced me to do something I hadnât done in over six yearsâdeviate from my strategy.
Why? Because sometimes the market throws a curveball, and that little voice in my head (letâs call it intuition) gets so loud that I simply need to throw out my meticulously planned process - or at least thatâs what I told myself.
Choosing Intuition Over Strategy: Breaking My Own Rules
Let me preface this with a disclaimer:
âintuitionâ is not a strategy.
Iâm not writing this to pat myself on the back. In fact, this is a learning experience for all of us. Even as a full-time capital allocator, I wrestle with the same tendencies as anyone else in this space - degenerecy, FOMO, anxiety, and uncontrollable confidence (until you put a house deposit on a dog coin that has been flat to down for 10 months - FFS)
In any case, my decision to sell an additional 20% of my portfolio did not come easy. What you saw yesterday in the community chat was me fighting with myself over this decision. It came after hours of internal debate and feedback from the Substack community chatđđź
There were some great takes in there.
After I made my decision to sell a further 20% of the portfolio, I provided an update in real-time before proceeeding to sell đđź
I then sold my bags at an average price of $268.7 for a grand total of 60% of my SOL bags unloaded across all entities đđź
What you couldnât really tell (but my wife certainly could) was the amount of self-induced stress I was putting myself under by not having a strategy for this scenario and deviating away from my processes, indicators, and tooling.
If I wasnât already certain (I was), I can almost guarantee you that a
an exit strategy set in stone that isnât fu**ed with, will help you live longer.
Now, of course I didnât have a contingency plan for
âwhat if SOL pumps and the rest of the coins do sweet fu** all for days on endâ.
Thatâs ridiculous.
But letâs get into the logic that backed up my intuition - It wasnât as simple as the famous words from GandhiâŚ
1ď¸âŁ The Uneasy Feeling
SOL was pumping while the rest of the market bled out - a textbook sign of a Player vs Player (PvP) market. Despite all the BS we see on Twitter about retail and institutional inflows, the liquidity drain across tokens screamed that this was still a zero-sum game - and what happens when those players (like me) decide
âthatâs enough profit for me for now?â
2ď¸âŁ The Unsustainable Rally
SOL climbed from $169 to $250â$300 in just five days - brother, thatâs a 75% rally on a $100B market cap asset.
As I said in my Substack note earlier that day đđź
âmake no mistake - what weâre experiencing now with SOL is euphoriaâ.
3ď¸âŁ Historical Patterns Donât Lie
The measured move from the Trump election win (in white) almost perfectly aligned in terms of magnitude with the most recent rally, as well as some of the more notable rallies in 2024 (in yellow). Each of these rallies followed a predictable sequence:
âbreakout, pullback, consolidation, breakoutâ.
4ď¸âŁ The Log Growth Curve
SOL broke out of the upper band of the log growth curve - In this bull market, a breakout on SOL was often followed by a correction.
âafter a breakout, of a log band, it is reasonable to expect a pullback to the previous band which is currently at $220â
5ď¸âŁ Overbought Trading Pairs
Key trading pairs told the same story:
SOLBTC: just 10% off its all-time high for this cycle.
SOLETH: hit a new ATH AND hovering just above the 1.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous cycle's high to low, AND sitting just below the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level of the most recent swing high to swing low.
SUISOL: retraced its entire November/December rally, returning to a critical entry zone that I wrote about in a previous newsletter.
Ultimately, this wasnât about chasing a feeling. It was a calculated move, leveraging my experience to make a decision that my tools couldnât quantify in real time.
The result? SOL is currently trading at $253, having dropped as low as $229 earlier today.
Let me remind you. This may look like a win - but it is only half the picture. For it to be a win, I need to reallocate that capital at a lower price than what I sold SOL at, which I outline next đđź
Reallocation Levels: Patience Pays Dividends
Letâs set the record straight: if SOL doesnât reach the levels I want, Iâm perfectly happy sitting in cash.
Why? Because I can put that idle capital to work on platforms like Kamino Finance at a ~9% yield on my stablecoins.
For perspective:
A $10,000 portfolio earning 9% yield? Thatâs ~$1,000 a year - maybe some folks think itâs not worth it.
But scale that to $1M? Now youâre earning $90K/year or ~$247/day. Is that worth it?
At $10M, youâre pulling in $900K/year or ~$2,470/day. How about that?
Itâs the same 9% yield, yet the stakes feel wildly different when larger sums are on the table. Recognising this value keeps me from chasing price. I try to treat each dollar equally and I wait for moments of maximum opportunity, whether my portfolio is $10K or $10M.
After all, weâre going into the pointy end of a bull market where volatility will peak. Iâm happy to bide my time.
With that mindset, Iâm eyeing two key levels for SOL:
1ď¸âŁ $223
Why?
Itâs a key D1 level đđź
It is also the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement of the recent swing low to high.
It is now the support level from the log growth curve band
Narrative matters: SOL has found its narrative again (USA coin and Trump shi**er ecosystem favourite). On this basis if it dumps to the 0.5 Fib, it is going to get quickly bought up, macro permitting.
2ď¸âŁ $200
Why? this is a nice round number and markets love nice round numbers
Confluence: This level aligns with the golden pocket Fibonacci 0.618â0.702 zone (see Fib retracement figure above) - a huge buy zone for traders, especially on the D1 chart.
With these levels in mind, Iâm in a comfortable position. The profits Iâve locked in over the last two months mean that even if the market tops tomorrow, Iâll have zero regrets - the last 2 years in the trenches would have been worth it.
By adopting this mindset, I ensure:
No chasing the market: The market doesnât dictate my dreams - itâs just a vehicle.
Idle capital works for me: Even when Iâm not fully allocated, my portfolio grows.
Patience is rewarded: I only risk capital for the best setups.
This is the mentality we should all aim for in the final year of a bull market.
Now, letâs dive into the RORO tool to understand how we should be positioned for the next few monthsđ
Should we be risk-on? đ
đ how do I use this tool? đ
TL;DR: 100% bullish crypto - why the f*** not!
Hereâs what the RORO tool is signallingđ
Letâs keep this one short, as weâve covered the RORO tool in depth recently. If youâre new here, the toolâs purpose is simple: to signal whether weâre in a multi-month risk-on or risk-off environment.
And the signal? Weâre firmly in risk-on mode.
This hasnât changed since I began sharing the RORO tool publicly in September 2024. In fact, this is the most bullish signal weâve seen for crypto since I started publishing itđđ˝
2025 Outlook: No Major Headwinds (Yet)
Iâve outlined some tailwinds, headwinds and narratives in my 2025 outlook đđź
For now, here are two points worth considering:
1ď¸âŁ US Net Fed Liquidity
Last month, I noted it seemed to be bottoming. Now, itâs starting to tick upward. Is this the beginning of a persistent uptrend? Too early to call, but the signs are promising.
2ď¸âŁ BTC Bags Stay in the Vault
The US Government hasnât sold any BTC despite it being all over Twitter over the last few weeks. With Trump and Senator Lummis in the picture, itâs fair to say we wonât see these âUS bagsâ sold anytime soon.
Onto the STT indicators đđ˝
Indicator Summary đŚ
đ how do I use this tool? đ
TL;DR: Itâs getting hot in here!
The markets are heating up againânothing surprising with BTC hitting new ATHs. Letâs unpack what the indicators are telling us:
1ď¸âŁ6ď¸âŁ: National Financial Conditions Index
Weâre back at levels historically seen at market peaks. While noteworthy, itâs not a red flag unless several other key indicators also flash đ´.
2ď¸âŁ1ď¸âŁ: Coinbase App is on a run!
Coinbase quietly moved to the #2 app on the iOS App Store (at the time of writing).
Even more impressive? Moonshot claimed the #1 Finance App spot and crypto apps now dominate the charts, holding positions #1â5, #7, and #12â13 globally.
Even more impressive? Moonshot and Phantom are now ranked #5 and #16 globally across all categories in the US. Our exit liquidity is here and their antics are leaving a trail of downloads.
Rapid Sentiment Shifts
Some indicators flipped from đ˘ to đ´ within a week. This kind of swift shift is rare and usually follows a âpositive black swanâ event - like, say, a POTUS memecoin launch. And by âpositive,â I mean positive for my bags đ¤¤đđź
New Addition: Monthly RSI
Iâve added #20: Monthly RSI to our arsenal. Historically, itâs been a solid top-calling indicator:
Premature in 2013 and 2017.
Perfected its timing in 2021.
Like us, it may have been premature once upon a time, but itâs learned from experience.
Right, guys? âŚGuys?
Thatâs all for now.
I dropped the first in a series of newsletters on wealth building last week. You should check it out đđź
Catch you next week.
âđ˝
Filip
I think we may have found a new verb, Gandhi. I'm snaking that one