Crypto Intuition vs. Strategy: When to Break Your Own Rules
Real-time analysis, key decisions, and the psychology behind them.
Welcome👋🏽
This week, I planned to deep-dive into the 2021 cycle, revisiting the indicators that signaled the March 2021 local top. Think of it as a sequel to my 2017 cycle breakdown. (If you haven’t read that one yet, do yourself a favour and check it out here 👇🏼).
But, as fate would have it, POTUS decided to launch a fu***** memecoin on a Friday night no less. And just like that, I kissed my weekend plans goodbye.
This was a significant event. Think about it. The President of the United States is shilling shi**ers.
Let’s pour one out for the TradFi folks who are sitting cosy on the sidelines with their Ben Graham book while 50 IQ crypto degens are making their annual salaries overnight.
I didn’t participate because I made the most mid-curve play imaginable by assuming “it might be a scam” - I mean we’re 20 days in and I faded the President. I think this might be a record for me.
My thought process at $1B market cap be like 👇🏼
Thank fu** I was able to capitalise on the monumental SOL pump that accompanied it otherwise I wouldn’t have been able to look myself in the mirror.
Said pump was so monumental that:
1️⃣ I sold my next 20% batch of SOL in line with my take profit (TP) strategy I shared here and posted this in real time in our Substack chat 👇🏼
2️⃣ I threw my 20/20/60 strategy out of the window (temporarily) and offloaded another 20% of my SOL holdings (more on this shortly).
If you aren’t active in our Substack community chat yet, you’re missing out. This isn’t your typical degen Twitter cesspool of crypto bros writing “goated” and “coded” BS. Here, you’ll find sharp minds exchanging civilised takes: everyday investors who’ve weathered several cycles, neuroscientists, serial entrepreneurs, angel investors, ex-investment bankers, brokers, and property developers. - there is so much insight from the folks in the community chat, and that’s just the ones I’ve worked on strategy sessions with.
Speaking of strategy, I’m opening up 12 spots for February.
What exactly are crypto strategy sessions?
These sessions are designed to help us come up with a structured, actionable plan together to help you make the most of the bull market👇
Is this right for me?
If you do not have a quantifiable plan and a strategy for every possible scenario this bull run, then this strategy session is for you.
If you’ve made fu** all and have been around since the start of this bull run or worse, you’ve been around for more than one bull run, then this strategy session is for you.
If you actually want to keep the money you’ve made so far, then this strategy session is for you.
What do I need to do right now?
Read the above link to see ‘what’s included’.
Secure your spot for February 2025👇
⚠️ DISCLAIMER ⚠️
The content provided by PROJECT 10X PTY LTD (Filip Brnadic) is for educational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. PROJECT 10X PTY LTD is not a licensed financial adviser under Australian law.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of all funds. Seek independent advice before making any financial decisions.
Circling back, let’s break down the two opportunities that I capitalised on.
TP2 for SOL @ $300: Locked and Loaded
Ah, yes - my second TP level for SOL hit just below $300, as outlined here 👇🏼
Sure, that’s great - but it’s not the interesting part. What I found interesting upon self-reflection was that my TP2 has consistently been “just below $300.” Depending on when you caught me or my mood that day, you might’ve heard ~$280 or $288.
Why does this matter?
Because, investor psychology is everything.
Last week, I was chatting with a friend (Matt—this one’s for you, mate 😂), and he hit me with the classic, “It’s easy to buy low and sell high.” Sure, Matt, when you’re playing with $30K, that’s manageable. But scaling that mindset to 7 or 8 figures?
Whole. Different. Ballgame.
As your stack grows from $10K to $100K, then $1M, $10M, or even $100M, you’ll realise how much louder that little voice in your head gets:
“For every $1 extra I HODL, my portfolio grows exponentially…”
“But what if the SOL price hits $287, then crashes to $225?”
“What if everyone front-runs $300, and I miss my target completely?”
“What if the inauguration pumps it to $400 before correcting to $300?”
This is precisely why I stick to tools and strategies:
The 20/20/60 rule to predefine TPs (even if the exact level shifts).
The RORO tool to gauge whether we’re in a bullish or bearish regime.
The STT indicatators to identify overheated markets at the top of a bull run.
And yet, even with all that, this past weekend forced me to do something I hadn’t done in over six years—deviate from my strategy.
Why? Because sometimes the market throws a curveball, and that little voice in my head (let’s call it intuition) gets so loud that I simply need to throw out my meticulously planned process - or at least that’s what I told myself.
Choosing Intuition Over Strategy: Breaking My Own Rules
Let me preface this with a disclaimer:
“intuition” is not a strategy.
I’m not writing this to pat myself on the back. In fact, this is a learning experience for all of us. Even as a full-time capital allocator, I wrestle with the same tendencies as anyone else in this space - degenerecy, FOMO, anxiety, and uncontrollable confidence (until you put a house deposit on a dog coin that has been flat to down for 10 months - FFS)
In any case, my decision to sell an additional 20% of my portfolio did not come easy. What you saw yesterday in the community chat was me fighting with myself over this decision. It came after hours of internal debate and feedback from the Substack community chat👇🏼
There were some great takes in there.
After I made my decision to sell a further 20% of the portfolio, I provided an update in real-time before proceeeding to sell 👇🏼
I then sold my bags at an average price of $268.7 for a grand total of 60% of my SOL bags unloaded across all entities 👇🏼
What you couldn’t really tell (but my wife certainly could) was the amount of self-induced stress I was putting myself under by not having a strategy for this scenario and deviating away from my processes, indicators, and tooling.
If I wasn’t already certain (I was), I can almost guarantee you that a
an exit strategy set in stone that isn’t fu**ed with, will help you live longer.
Now, of course I didn’t have a contingency plan for
“what if SOL pumps and the rest of the coins do sweet fu** all for days on end”.
That’s ridiculous.
But let’s get into the logic that backed up my intuition - It wasn’t as simple as the famous words from Gandhi…
1️⃣ The Uneasy Feeling
SOL was pumping while the rest of the market bled out - a textbook sign of a Player vs Player (PvP) market. Despite all the BS we see on Twitter about retail and institutional inflows, the liquidity drain across tokens screamed that this was still a zero-sum game - and what happens when those players (like me) decide
“that’s enough profit for me for now?”
2️⃣ The Unsustainable Rally
SOL climbed from $169 to $250–$300 in just five days - brother, that’s a 75% rally on a $100B market cap asset.
As I said in my Substack note earlier that day 👇🏼
“make no mistake - what we’re experiencing now with SOL is euphoria”.
3️⃣ Historical Patterns Don’t Lie
The measured move from the Trump election win (in white) almost perfectly aligned in terms of magnitude with the most recent rally, as well as some of the more notable rallies in 2024 (in yellow). Each of these rallies followed a predictable sequence:
“breakout, pullback, consolidation, breakout”.
4️⃣ The Log Growth Curve
SOL broke out of the upper band of the log growth curve - In this bull market, a breakout on SOL was often followed by a correction.
“after a breakout, of a log band, it is reasonable to expect a pullback to the previous band which is currently at $220”
5️⃣ Overbought Trading Pairs
Key trading pairs told the same story:
SOLBTC: just 10% off its all-time high for this cycle.
SOLETH: hit a new ATH AND hovering just above the 1.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous cycle's high to low, AND sitting just below the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level of the most recent swing high to swing low.
SUISOL: retraced its entire November/December rally, returning to a critical entry zone that I wrote about in a previous newsletter.
Ultimately, this wasn’t about chasing a feeling. It was a calculated move, leveraging my experience to make a decision that my tools couldn’t quantify in real time.
The result? SOL is currently trading at $253, having dropped as low as $229 earlier today.
Let me remind you. This may look like a win - but it is only half the picture. For it to be a win, I need to reallocate that capital at a lower price than what I sold SOL at, which I outline next 👇🏼