Selling the Top of the Crypto Bull Run
Issue #2 - All Time High LFG!!!
Welcome 👋🏽
I said that when the market heats up I’d be dropping this Newsletter series more often.
Bitcoin has broken its ATH and that time has come.
I’ll be updating these indicators fortnightly from now on.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER ⚠️
The content provided by PROJECT 10X PTY LTD (Filip Brnadic) is for educational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. PROJECT 10X PTY LTD is not a licensed financial adviser under Australian law.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of all funds. Seek independent advice before making any financial decisions.
How it Works 🤔
I’ve tiered the indicators so you know which ones hold more weight.
Jedi = the ultimate indicators
Normie = great data-driven indicators
Pleb = good gauge of sentiment
I’ve also added traffic lights next to each indicator to identify their status quickly.
🟢 all G baby
🟡 close to hitting this indicator, or we’re seeing early signs (when it comes to sentiment gauge)
🔴 this indicator has been hit!
Summary
We are balls deep in a bull market cycle having smashed through BTC ATH some nine months ahead of schedule. There’s been talks of a left translated cycle which is certainly on the cards but is not my base case.
Most of the Pleb tier sentiment indicators are starting to flash warning signs with the most notable signs being the use of “leverage” with credit cards, 401K’s and property to buy more crypto.
We’ve finally broken through the 2x Golden Ratio Multiplier and are heading towards the 3x multiplier which currently stands at $104K. BTC has topped shortly after breaking through the 3x multiplier in the last two bull market cycles.
Personally, I won’t wait for price to break the 3x multiplier because the law of diminishing returns tells us that as the market cap of an asset increases the marginal return on that asset will tend to decrease. On that basis I don’t expect BTC to continue to break the 3x multiple every cycle
We’ve had our first Jedi tier indicator, the Ultimate Oscillator, start to flash 🟡. For context, in 2016 it touched the 75.77 level twice before breaking it with strength in the lead up to ATH.
JEDI TIER 🥇
1. Global Liquidity Cycle (GLC) 🟢
Signal: The GLC shows a peak in the markets sometime around Q1 2025 ± 1Q.
Status: The indicator has bottomed and is on an upward trajectory albeit with a few speed bumps along the way. It seems we’ve got ~1 year to go, so let’s see how this plays out.
Read more about my Global Liquidity Cycle thesis here 👇🏽
2. Semaphore Indicator 🟢
Signal: The bull run ends sometime in H2 2025 according to historic bull run durations.
Status: So far this cycle we’ve had a down year, a side-ways year, and have smashed expectations for 2024. History says we were meant to be at ATH in December 2024. We got there by March and we’ve got ~1.5 years until this indicator starts yelling SELL!
Here is a deep dive 👇🏽
3. Pi Cycle Indicator 🟢
Signal: When the white and yellow MA lines cross, this will indicate a PI cycle high. PI Cycle has historically picked bull market tops to within ± 3 days.
Status: We’re not even close to hitting PI cycle high, which is great news because it means there are gains to be had!
I call this indicator my “crypto sherpa”. Read more here 👇🏽
4. Ultimate Oscillator (UO)🟡
Signal: when the UO on the 2W BTC chart breaks above 75.77, then starts to reverse.
Status: UO = 72.15. If BTC continues this momentum upwards, this indicator will break in the coming weeks. I’ll be keeping a close eye on this one.
5. Net Unrealised Profit Loss (NUPL) 🟢
Signal: when NUPL reaches ≥ 80% BTC price peaks shortly after.
Status: NUPL = 48%. We’re not even close - good news!
6. Fib Extensions 🟢
Signal: when the price hits the 1.618 Fib of the 2021/22 peak and trough. I’ve provided charts for BTC, ETH, and SOL.
Status: The 1.618 is a conservative view given we hit the 3.618 Fib in the prior cycle. In any case, better to be conservative and make money than ride it all the way up and back down again.
BTC 1.618 = $102K
ETH 1.618 = $7,300
SOL 1.618 = $415
Bitcoin
Ethereum
Solana
7. LTC/BTC Breakout 🟢
Signal: when LTC/BTC is trending down for weeks, followed by a strong breakout. Check out the first newsletter for historic examples.
Status: There has been a downtrend for the last 6 months with no breakout. When it does happen, it’ll signal that it’s full blown ‘shitcoin season’ and we’re near the end.
8. Log Curves 🟢
Signal: when the price hits the top of the log channel.
Bitcoin: Expected to top at ~$109K. We’ve got room to run.
Ethereum: Expected to top at $8,500. We’re not even close.
Solana: Expected to top at $280.
9. 2Y MA x 5 🟢
Signal: when the price exceeds the red 2Y MA x 5. Historically, BTC price has topped 40, 24, 31, and 6 days after exceeding the red line. That is an average of ~25 days.
Status: BTC is expected to top at $104K.
NORMIE TIER 🥈
10. Yearly Pivot 🟢
Signal: when price hits one of the key Yearly Pivot points. I’m expecting a top for this cycle between R4 = $98,724 and R5 = $116,722. As you see, this price level has confluence with many of the other indicators.
Status: Price is ~$71,000 and has smashed past R1 and R2 in the last 30 days.
11. Coinbase #1 App 🟢
Signal: when Coinbase hits #1 spot on Apple’s US App Store Ranking
Status: Currently > #156 in App Store (All Categories) and #11 in App Store (Finance Category)
Hint: Keep an eye out for the native Solana App, Phantom. If that gets near #1 on the App store, there’s a good chance we’ve topped.
12. Total crypto market cap 🟢
Signal: when total crypto Market Capitalisation (MC) hits the 1.618 Fib at $7.2T. I have also labelled a sell zone above $5T. The price at which I think it makes sense to start scaling out.
Status: Current MC is $2.6T.
To give you an ideas of how fast the crypto market can move, we’ve added $1T to the market cap in the last 30 days.
13. Good Traders Selling Spot 🟢
Signal: when the best traders on CT start scaling out of their spot positions.
Status: None of them are calling for a top right now.
@TheFlowHorse has revealed his exit strategy for BTC is between $80 to $100K. I’ll be taking profits at $100K given the confluence of so many indicators around this level, so we’re on the same page.
14. DXY 🟢
Signal: when DXY slides below ~$91.
Status: $DXY @ $102.7. All systems green here.
15. Golden Ratio Multiplier 🟡
Signal: when the Golden Ratio Multiplier exceeds the 2x multiple and approaches 3x multiple. The 2x and 3x multiples are denoted by the red and purple lines, respectively.
Status: We’ve exceeded the red 2x multiple (@ $68,473), and are slowly but surely approaching the purple 3x multiple (@ $104K). I’ll continue to keep a close eye on this indicator.
16. National Financial Conditions Index 🟢
Signal: when NFCI breaks the -0.63 level it has marked the local top in the last 2 crypto cycles.
Status: NFCI = -0.47 implies that financial conditions have tightened since last month.
PLEB TIER 🥉
17. Rolex’s, Lambos, and Leverage 🔴
Signal: when you, your friends or CT
start talking Rolex’s and Lambos
borrowing against homes to buy crypto
taking out credit to buy crypto
Status: We’re seeing people take cash out on credit cards and even taking loans from their 401K to buy BTC. This is just going to escalate as we climb higher and it is a clear sign that we’re no longer “early” to this bull market.
18. Normies Entering 🟡
Signal: When your normie friends and family start asking about crypto or asking you to “buy some for them”.
Status: This is, of course, relative. A few weeks ago, I had a parents friend ask me if they could just “give me cash” and I invest it on their behalf. That is laziness on another level, seeing as I have a public eToro portfolio that hundreds of people from all over the world copy automatically and for free. It’s just “too hard” they reckon.
19. Crypto Conversations 🟡
Signal: When crypto starts to pops up in conversation everywhere.
Status: This is also relative (hence why it’s a pleb signal).
I went out to dinner last Friday. Crypto made its way into the conversation. “I made 2x trading Synapse”.
A friend called me up on Saturday. “You said the markets wouldn’t pump in Q1 of 2024!”. Mother******, I’ve also been telling you to buy for the last 1.5 years.
20. Real Estate Shopping 🟡
Signal: when you, your friends or people on Crypto Twitter (CT) real estate shopping
Status: I’m guilty of this 😆 Last month I told you I went to a viewing of a dream apartment that is so out of my budget right now, I may as well have been viewing Buckingham Palace
On the plus side, I moved into a new place with an amazing view this month, ticking off one of my five retirement goals (LFG!)
and now I’m starting to see other crypto natives like @AltcoinPsycho getting interested in property #bullmarketthings
21. Celebrity Promotions 🟡
Signal: when celebrities like Katy Perry and Soulja Boy start posting about crypto
Status: Last month we saw Soulja Boy asking CT “what’s the best crypto right now”.
This month we have KSI being blocked from buying crypto by his bank.
and Offset pumping the $MYRO token.
22. BTFD and HFSP 🟢
Signal: When you start hearing “BTFD” and “HFSP” on CT and eToro.
Status: I haven’t heard this type of bull market euphoria just yet, but believe me, we’ll get there.
23. Legal Tender 🟢
Signal: when more countries like El Salvador start accepting crypto as legal tender
Status: Right now it’s El Salvador, but if Edward Snowden’s prediction that “a national government will publicly reveal its purchase of Bitcoin in 2024” is anything to go by, we’ll see more by the end of the year.
24. Crypto Advertising 🔴
Signal: When crypto ads start popping up everywhere. I’m talking stadium naming rights, Las Vegas sphere ads, and TV commercials.
Last month we saw the BTC spot ETF commercials that were nothing short of amazing.
This month we have a crowdfunding campaign to put the $WIF token on the Las Vegas sphere. It has reached 50% of it’s $650,000 goal in just two days. If you’re not already aware by the shitcoin pumps that have been happening lately, it’s clear that some serious profits have already been made in the space.
25. IPOs 🟡
Signal: when you hear news of big players like Circle and Kraken looking to IPO
Status: It’s only March 2024. We haven’t even had the BTC halving and our first IPO bingo card has been checked off thanks to Circle (the company behind the stablecoin USDC).
That's it!
If you find these updates useful, drop a comment below!
Catch you next week.
✌️
Filip Brnadic
Dude I just discovered this and it's awesome! Are there more coming more frequently? I want to sign up for a sub if so. Thank you!
That view though 🤤